The 2026 Off-Lease Wave: Half a Million More Used Cars, and What to Check on a Lease Return

Key facts

• Off-lease volume: projected +25.7% in 2026 vs 2025, roughly 500,000 additional units (Edmunds Q1 2026 Used Car Report; a projection, not an actual figure).
• About 215,000 of the incremental returns are EVs, a subset of the surge (Edmunds).
• Implied scale: ~1.95 million off-lease units in 2025, ~2.45 million in 2026 (Zilocar estimate derived from Edmunds' 25.7% and ~500K figures; Edmunds did not publish the absolute base).
• Lease penetration held near ~20% of new-vehicle sales in 2025 and Q1 2026, which is why Edmunds calls the wave short-lived.
• Average 3-year-old used vehicle: $31,548 in Q1 2026, the second-highest Q1 on record behind Q1 2022 ($32,164), retaining just 66% of original MSRP (a five-year low, down from 81% in Q1 2022).
• Five-year-old EVs lost 57.2% of value vs a 41.8% all-vehicle average (iSeeCars, 950,000+ transactions, March 2025 to February 2026). Trucks (34.2%) and hybrids (35.4%) held value best.
• Average used listing price: $30,200 in May 2026, up 5.1% year over year (CarGurus), the first reading above $30,000 since August 2023, with inventory rebuilding.

How big is the 2026 off-lease wave, really?

The 2026 off-lease wave is a projected 25.7% year-over-year jump, about 500,000 more returned lease vehicles than 2025, according to Edmunds' Q1 2026 Used Car Report. This is a forward projection, not a tallied result, and roughly 215,000 of that increase is expected to be EVs. Edmunds did not publish the absolute base, so the scale is best understood through its own percentages.

Working back from Edmunds' figures, a 25.7% increase equal to about 500,000 units implies a 2025 base near 1.95 million off-lease vehicles and a 2026 total near 2.45 million. Treat those two totals as a Zilocar estimate, not reported Edmunds numbers.

Crucially, this is a one-year swell rather than a durable trend. Lease penetration stayed near 20% of new-vehicle sales in both 2025 and Q1 2026, and because lease originations remained low as automaker incentives slowed, Edmunds' Ivan Drury expects volumes to stay "broadly in line with market demand." (Note: outlets parse Edmunds inconsistently; a separate ~400,000-unit figure has been attributed to both 2026 and 2027, so do not stack it on top of the ~500,000 without caveat.)

Does more off-lease supply actually lower the price I pay?

Not reliably, and this is a genuinely contested point. Edmunds expects prices to stay firm rather than collapse, because the extra volume should track demand. CarGurus data points the same way: the average used listing price hit $30,200 in May 2026, up 5.1% year over year and the first reading above $30,000 since August 2023, with inventory still rebuilding off its March 2026 low.

So the wave changes what you are looking at more than what you pay. The average 3-year-old used vehicle still sold for $31,548 in Q1 2026, the second-highest first quarter on record. Any earlier claim that 2026 used prices fell about 8% year over year is stale; that figure came from CarGurus' 2024 mid-year review and does not describe 2026, when prices rose.

Where discounts do show up, they concentrate. Lease-heavy EVs and luxury models are the source of cheaper supply, while trucks and popular crossovers can sell above their resale estimates.

Are off-lease used cars a good deal, and which types hold value?

It depends heavily on the segment. Steeper depreciation is what makes off-lease supply cheaper, and it lands unevenly. Three-year-old vehicles retained just 66% of original MSRP in Q1 2026, a five-year low versus 81% in Q1 2022, and lease-heavy EVs sit at the bottom.

The poster child is the Mercedes-Benz EQS: an original lease MSRP of $127,526 (leased 82% of the time) now averages about $49,290 used, a roughly 61% drop. The Volvo C40 Recharge sells about $7,160 below its estimated resale and the Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV about $8,563 below. On the other side, the Honda CR-V sells about $5,372 above its estimated resale and the Ford F-150 about $3,111 above, so more supply does not mean uniform discounts.

Longer-term data agrees on the pattern. Over five years, iSeeCars found EVs lost 57.2% of value against a 41.8% all-vehicle average, while trucks (34.2%) and hybrids (35.4%) held value best. Note the 57.2% applies only to the five-year-old EV cohort, not EVs of every age.

Why do off-lease EVs look so cheap: bargain or warning?

Both, depending on the car. A large price drop on a lease-return EV reflects weak used-EV resale demand and uncertainty about battery age, not necessarily a hidden defect. The 57.2% five-year loss iSeeCars measured (across 950,000+ transactions, March 2025 to February 2026) means a cheap sticker is often just the market repricing the segment.

That said, a low price is a reason to verify, not to relax. Confirm the mileage fits a three-year lease, check for a recorded accident or airbag deployment, and review battery-relevant recalls at NHTSA. The discount is real; the due diligence still has to happen.

What to check when buying an off-lease used car

A lease return is typically a three-year-old, single-lessee vehicle, so three risks matter most: heavy or fleet-style mileage for its age, a repaired prior accident the seller downplays, and a thin or churning listing history that signals a flip or a car nobody wanted. Each is verifiable before you sign.

• Mileage for the age. A three-year lease usually runs about 30,000 to 45,000 miles. Odometer readings and a rollback check flag numbers inconsistent with a normal lease and hint at fleet-style use. Remember a VIN check cannot label a car as off-lease versus off-rental; judge it by the actual mileage record.
• Prior accident or damage. Accident and damage records with location, type, severity, and airbag-deployment status expose a repaired hit. A VIN check shows the record; it cannot certify the repair, so have a mechanic inspect any car with a logged accident.
• Sales-listing history. Past and current listings, asking prices, mileage at each listing, and days-on-market reveal a car that has bounced between sellers. Repeated relisting is a signal worth questioning.
• Ownership and salvage-auction records. Ownership history and any junk or salvage auction records add context, though the auction record is not the same as a legal title brand.
• Open recalls. Screen for recall presence, then confirm remedy status separately (below).

For recalls specifically, start with NHTSA's free VIN lookup at NHTSA.gov/recalls, which is authoritative for open-recall status. A Zilocar VIN check is a useful companion here: alongside NHTSA's tool, it screens for recall presence and pulls the accident, odometer, listing, and ownership history in one place.

By the numbers

Based on figures reported in the Edmunds Q1 2026 Used Car Report, the iSeeCars depreciation study (950,000+ five-year-old vehicle transactions, March 2025 to February 2026), and CarGurus May 2026 and June 2026 mid-year data, compiled by Zilocar on 2026-08-11. The ~1.95M and ~2.45M off-lease totals are Zilocar estimates derived from Edmunds' stated percentage and unit delta, not Edmunds-published figures.

What a VIN check can and can't tell you here

A VIN check is strongest on a lease return's recorded history and weakest on recall follow-through. Use it for what it verifies, and go to NHTSA and the dealer for the rest.

For recall remedy status and any open investigation, enter the VIN at NHTSA.gov/recalls and confirm the fix with a franchise dealer.

Before you buy any lease return, a Zilocar VIN check puts the checks that matter most in one report: reported accident and airbag-deployment records, odometer and rollback checks, sales-listing history, ownership and salvage-auction records, theft and specs, NHTSA/IIHS ratings, valuation, and recall screening. It does not confirm a recall was fixed, track investigations, or show the legal title brand, so pair it with NHTSA and a dealer for those.

Sources

• Edmunds Q1 2026 Used Car Report — off-lease surge, residuals, model-level depreciation
• iSeeCars Car Affordability / depreciation study — 5-year-old EV 57.2% vs 41.8% market (950,000+ transactions, Mar 2025–Feb 2026)
• CarGurus 2026 Mid-Year Report — hybrid surge, price gap, age mix
• CBT News — CarGurus May 2026: used prices top $30K (+5.1% YoY), inventory rebuilding
• Auto Remarketing — Edmunds: off-lease/leasing hike expected to be short-lived
• TheStreet — Edmunds sees major shift on used-car prices
• NHTSA recall lookup (authoritative open-recall status)

Last verified: 2026-08-11.